Following the news that projected funding under the Boiler Upgrade Scheme will not be met, Mark Krull from LCL Awards and Logic4training, warns that capping support for retrofit heat pumps could undermine confidence and installation targets.

“We were expecting the BUS to be cut in the Autumn budget, thanks to rumours circulating in the media, and although not mentioned in John Healey’s speech, the cuts have nevertheless unfortunately materialised. The current funding level of £400 million will be maintained through 2027/28 – around £200 million less than projected – rising in line with inflation thereafter. The £7,500 grant is unchanged, meaning the budget covers a maximum of 53,333 installs per year, with the £9,000 grant and 0% VAT rate due to end in March 2027.

“I understand the government needs to make savings, but by capping funding they run the risk of creating a damaging ‘chicken and egg’ scenario for installers. At Logic4training, we see first-hand what fluctuating funding and policy u-turns do to course bookings; without strong demand, installers cannot invest in training, MCS and other costs of upskilling, but consumers can’t create demand without available installers.

“Without projected growth of the BUS, the government will now have to lean heavily on non-subsidy drivers to meet carbon reduction targets for heating. The Future Homes Standard will accelerate demand in the new build sector from next year and the Clean Heat Market Mechanism should push manufacturers to support low carbon heating. The Warm Homes Loan Scheme is a welcome addition, but it can only go so far towards the installation targets set out in the Warm Homes Plan.

“Ultimately, the heat pump market is more resilient than ever before, with established supply chains, a growing network of passionate and knowledgeable installers, and homeowners who are better informed – all of which has happened in the last 7 years. We now need to build on that momentum – if the government holds its nerve and gives clear and consistent signals, I am confident that industry will rise to the challenge.”